Is Eurofighter the EU's last chance to avert a crisis with Türkiye?

Yesterday, our headline was "Türkiye's security begins at sea." Now, what about the Air Force? If your air forces are not strong, you cannot maintain your independence. In this era, it is like this. It's that simple. That's why Türkiye has been allocating significant resources to the Air Force in recent years, taking tremendous steps to increase domestic production and reduce external dependency, focusing on the National Technology Move. You are aware of the point we have reached in UAV/ISR technology and the game-changing role it played in places like Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and Libya. Selçuk and Haluk Bayraktar brothers are taking this technology to the next level with the unmanned combat aerial vehicle Kızılelma.

All these are exciting developments. However, to meet Türkiye's short-term needs, steps need to be taken regarding fighter jets. Due to crises with the United States, we are not part of the 5th generation fighter jet project F-35. (Greece is acquiring these aircraft, which is a critical issue for air superiority balance in the Aegean.) Negotiations are underway with the United States for the purchase and modernization of new F-16s. Ankara's expectation is to buy 40 new F-16s (new generation Block 70) and 79 modernization kits. Despite positive statements from the White House, as usual, the ball is thrown to Congress.

THE U.S.' F-16 BARGAINING

Actually, what's happening is this: Washington is turning the F-16 sale into a political negotiation. The subject of the negotiation is ostensibly Sweden's NATO membership. Although statements come from Washington like "Sweden's membership and F-16 sale are two separate issues," this is not very convincing. Even when Türkiye approves Sweden's membership, it is a question mark whether the U.S. will take a step regarding F-16s. In the final analysis, Senator Ben Cardin, who took over the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from Turkish enemy Menendez, said the only issue for the F-16 sale is not Sweden's NATO membership.

In this context, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler announced during the budget discussions in the Turkish Grand National Assembly. According to this, while Ankara is negotiating with the U.S. on the F-16 (4th generation), it is also in contact with Europeans for the procurement of the Eurofighter Typhoon (4.5th generation). Minister Güler said, "If it happens, we will buy 40." However, he mentioned some obstacles from Germany. Statements indicate that Spain and the UK support the sale of Eurofighter, and they are trying to convince Germany.

CLEAR MESSAGE FROM ERDOĞAN

During his visit to Berlin, a German journalist also asked President Erdoğan about this issue. The journalist's question indicates that Germany has turned the sale of Eurofighter into a political bargaining chip. Especially, Ankara is being warned due to its human-focused foreign policy in Palestine.

President Erdoğan, in response to this question, gave a very clear answer by saying, "Do not threaten us with these." His words, "Germany will give or not. We can obtain these from many places," are a warning and contain a clue about Ankara's next step.

So, what are the details? What will be Ankara's next step? I checked with my sources. I can summarize the answers I received as follows:

One. Ankara wants to get the latest and most advanced version of the Eurofighter. The planning is to buy 20 first and then increase the number to 40.

Two. Is there a problem with the F-16 with the ongoing talks behind the decision to buy Eurofighter? Not exactly. As far as I understand, Ankara wants both aircraft in its inventory.

Three. Spaniards and the British are very willing to sell aircraft to Türkiye. The reason is that they need additional resources to develop Eurofighter. However, Germany opposes the sale. The two countries are sure they can convince the Germans.

Four. Germany's reason for opposing the sale is the EU's sanctions against Türkiye. As it is known, Türkiye's rights in the Eastern Mediterranean were sought to be usurped, and Ankara disrupted this game with drilling activities and the Libya agreement. In 2019, the EU took a series of sanctions decisions against Türkiye, citing its counter-terrorism operations, and some countries limited arms sales to Ankara. Germany says these sanctions are still in effect.

Five. Türkiye experienced a similar situation before in the field of air defense systems. When Türkiye was trying to acquire air defense systems due to urgent needs, the U.S. did not meet expectations in terms of joint production and price, and tried to extend the process over time. Upon this, Ankara sat down with Russia and reached an agreement on the S-400. Now Türkiye needs to strengthen its air fleet. The U.S.'s attitude on the F-16 is known. It's dragging again. The Germans are also blocking the process on Eurofighter. I can't help but agree with the complaint I heard from one of my sources: "Under these conditions, if we buy Su-35s, no one can say anything to us."

Six. Su-35s (4.5th generation) are not on Ankara's agenda yet. The focus is on F-16s and Eurofighters. However, Türkiye's needs are evident. Ankara's warning about Eurofighter may be the last exit sign before the bridge.