Radical steps against Israel in Syria...

The attack on the Abu Dhuhur Military Air Base in the Idlib countryside is not really a surprise. Because Israel appears to have entered a new phase regarding Syria, and it was expected that it would increase its attacks (see: Israel says Syria is Gaza 2.0, June 30). Moreover, news hinting at this attack had also been circulating. On June 14, the Israeli media had reported the claim that "Tel Aviv asked the US to launch attacks on Turkish targets or Turkish-backed forces in Syria, but Trump blocked it." Last week, they also made a huge fuss over the news that Syrian pilots had begun training flights with the few remaining aircraft in Idlib's skies. Behind Israel's motivation specifically for this attack, there is the following picture…

THEY WANT TO INDUCE PREMATURE DELIVERY

Syrian context: We have always discussed that Israel desires a weak, fragmented Syria. It does not want to see a country that has achieved stability, with a strong army (especially air forces), right to its north. It believes that Syria's military capacity should remain at a level sufficient to ensure internal security. Because the Israeli administration is not looking at today but at 10 years from now. They know that in the medium term, they will not be able to threaten a Syria that has achieved power concentration (due to the land connection). By provoking Shara and drawing him into a conflict, they are trying to induce "premature delivery." This is also a pressure on Shara to "keep your distance from Türkiye" (Shara received Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, along with Türkiye's Ambassador to Damascus Nuh Yılmaz, the day after the attack. A new energy agreement was signed between the two countries.)

Another of Israel's demands is the issue of airspace control. They want "operational freedom" in Syrian airspace. Previously, these demands were limited to the southern and southeastern regions, roughly corresponding to the "David's Corridor," which they used as a transit route for attacks on Iran. Now they have extended these demands to cover all of Syria.

THEY ARE USING A DIFFERENT LANGUAGE

Turkish context: After the Israeli army attacked the Syrian presidential residence, a Türkiye-Syria defense agreement was signed at Shara's request. This agreement envisioned the training of the Syrian army and military-defense cooperation. The requirements of this agreement are currently being fulfilled. The reactivation of the Abu Dhuhur Base is also within this scope. Israel is uncomfortable with the increase of Turkish influence in Syria. They are hardening their positions. Previously, they told the Americans: "We have no problem with the Turkish presence in the north, as long as they do not come south and approach our border." During his latest visit to Trump, Netanyahu used a different language. He showed Trump the Turkish presence in Syria on a map (it was reflected in the press that the Americans said, "The Turks are there at the invitation of Damascus; you were not invited.") Now it is said that in response to suggestions to "withdraw from Syria," he has replied, "If the Turks withdraw, I will withdraw."

ISRAEL CANNOT STOP THIS PROCESS

Regional context: Let's name it: Israel under Netanyahu's administration is a hostile country. It will be treated accordingly. However, Israel's only issue is not Türkiye. A new architecture is being established in the region. The skeleton of this architecture consists of energy and trade corridors; its political consultation mechanism is the Regional Quartet; and its defense component is the Mecca Alliance. Türkiye plays a leading role in this, narrowing Israel's space in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and challenging its claim of being a "bully hegemon." Israel has remained outside this emerging architecture. That is how the flow of history works. These attacks may slow the process but will not stop it.

"WAIT UNTIL THE ELECTIONS," THEY SAY

US context: Ambassador Thomas Barrack announced that Israel carried out the attack, with a message expressing concern. He said they are trying to establish a non-conflict mechanism between Türkiye, Syria, and Israel. In his statement to Reuters, he also implied some things. It also came to my ears that Israeli jets approaching the Turkish border were detected, and as a precaution, Turkish jets were scrambled. Trump is angry with Netanyahu because of Iran. He is angry because of Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank (Trump's envoy used the term "Israeli terrorists" for the first time.) However, it is seen that the White House can only restrain Israel up to a point. It is also understood that the Americans do not want to get between Türkiye and Israel. That is why they are sending the message to Damascus: "Hold on until the elections in Israel." Everyone is aware that Netanyahu is seeking to consolidate his base through anti-Turkish sentiment before the elections.

WHAT WILL TÜRKİYE DO?

In his statement on Gaza in Egypt, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said: "We expect the US to apply the necessary pressure on Israel. Otherwise, Türkiye, Qatar, and Egypt will have to take radical steps on this matter." What these radical steps were became a matter of curiosity. I later learned that this step was "withdrawal from the guarantorship." However, this became unnecessary because after this statement, Trump's son-in-law Kushner met with Hamas in Egypt and with Netanyahu in Israel. There is movement for the second phase of the Gaza Peace Plan.

Will radical steps also come to the agenda regarding Syria? Israel, with all these actions, deserves a harsh response. It also wants that harsh response. It wants to determine the time and place itself when "drawing a line" for Türkiye. It is setting a trap. But Turkish state reasoning does not work like that. It is composed. It looks not at today but at the medium and long term. It does not leave the initiative to its adversary. It chooses the time and place of its response. While maintaining its prestige and deterrence, it tries to sustain its game plan (This requires a delicate balance.) Wasn't it this that toppled Assad in Syria?