Sweden forced to cooperate after Türkiye’s veto

Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership bid continues to occupy the foreign policy agenda. You first read in this column that Ankara is preparing to give Finland the green light, but Sweden the red light. There have been new developments behind the scenes upon Ankara’s decision, which I will share with you today.

But first, we need to briefly remember the process.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden, and Finland decided to join NATO, but their bid was vetoed by Türkiye. Ankara announced that Sweden in particular is involved in relations with terrorist organizations, and it will not approve its NATO membership unless they end such affairs.

Hence, negotiations were launched. A trilateral memorandum was signed on June 28 between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden, which stipulated that the two countries will not act against Türkiye, they will support Türkiye in anti-terrorism efforts, prevent the Fetullahist Terrorist Organization (FETÖ) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) operations, and repatriate the terror-affiliated individuals whose names are reported by Türkiye. The three countries assembled two times in a Permanent Joint Mechanism meeting to review whether the promises made were kept.

However, a fallout was experienced during this process regarding Sweden and Finland, two countries that want to join NATO together. Sweden immediately lifted its arms embargo on Türkiye, and started to make changes to its terror legislation, however, it continued to refrain especially from repatriating terror-affiliated individuals. Furthermore, when the Quran-burning protest took place in January outside the Turkish embassy in Sweden, it all went haywire. The third scheduled Permanent Joint Mechanism meeting was postponed, and Türkiye suspended bilateral meetings. Also, note that Finland did not allow a similar provocation, and prevented the Quran-burning protest.

This is exactly where Ankara gave Stockholm the clear signal that it would veto its NATO bid. Finland then revised its strategy to join NATO together with Sweden. Yet, Sweden is seen to take a series of steps to convince Türkiye.

These steps can be listed as follows:

1. Though Sweden previously did not directly communicate with the PKK, its dialogue with the terrorist organization’s Syrian wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD)/Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) was top-level. According to reports, this dialogue ended.

2. Two terrorists were repatriated to Türkiye. Some were deported and sent back to their country of origin. Note that Türkiye demanded that Sweden and Finland repatriate 23 people. Hence, this matter is still on the table.

3. The terrorist activities we witnessed many times in the country have been restricted.

4. Banning provocative demonstrations, such as burning the Holy Quran – like in Finland – is now in discussion.

Though independent of the process, it also needs to be remembered that Sweden demonstrated a strong example of solidarity in the recent major earthquakes we experienced in Türkiye.

These delayed steps show very clearly that Sweden does not want to miss the NATO train. However, it is still uncertain whether Türkiye will be satisfied with these steps because the guarantees given in the trilateral memorandum are yet to be completely fulfilled. We will see what approach Ankara will take after the previously canceled third Permanent Joint Mechanism meeting. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çauşoğlu announced that the meeting will be held on March 9, most likely in Brussels. He noted, “Let us do it there so they can see clearly that Sweden failed to fulfill its obligations.”

There are important developments regarding the Nov. 13 İstiklal Avenue attack. As known, female terrorist Ahlam Albashir, who left the bomb, was captured shortly after the attack, and security units sought the other terrorist who conducted the attack. Hazni Gölge was captured in January in Bulgaria within this scope and brought to Türkiye. As operations to capture Bilal Hassan – another name involved in the attack – are ongoing, we received surprise news from Syria. Halil Menci, who planned and organized the attack, was killed in a car explosion in the PKK terrorist organization-controlled Qamishli. Ankara is also discussing the identification of another individual, who got through the Turkish border the terrorists involved in the attack. It is reported that he has been neutralized. This is important. It is clear that the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) is starting to eliminate one by one the terrorist who planned and organized the Taksim attack. The “We can attack Türkiye, and nobody will call us to account anyway” era is over.