The PKK terror group's imaginary world

The Istiklal Avenue attack on Nov. 13 was a part of the terrorism mechanics activated against Türkiye. 

 The missile attacks that martyred 5-year-old boy Hasan, and teacher Aysenur Alkan in Türkiye’s southeastern Gaziantep province are chain terrorist activities by this mechanic aimed at provocation. 

 The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorist organization’s provocation activities have a set objective. But before we discuss that, we first need to put the missing pieces of the picture together. 

 The war that broke out in Ukraine radically changed the parameters affecting the players on the ground in Syria. 

 For example, Ankara’s area of influence and diplomatic reputation increased. Türkiye was the only country that mediated between Ukraine and Russia. The mediation margin reached the West-Russia level by bringing together U.S. and Russian intelligence organizations in Ankara. We will see how important this is and its outcomes in the upcoming period. 

 This process is transforming the U.S.’s view of Türkiye – even if unwillingly. Washington wants to keep Ankara by its side in the Ukraine issue. Good news from F-16 negotiations will be a reflection of this. 

 According to certain analyses, the U.S. has lately been trying to avoid tensions with Türkiye – especially regarding Syria. It is aware that it cannot prevent any operation by Türkiye in the region within the scope of legitimate defense. It foresees that this will be the end of the terror corridor it has been striving to establish in the region for years. It can be said that Washington is hence upset with the PKK – particularly due to the attack in Gaziantep. The White House statement that “Türkiye has the right to defend itself,” is aimed at disciplining the PKK. It is claimed that the U.S. scolded the PKK saying, “You will lose all your gains,” and the terrorists defended themselves saying, “We are not doing the attacks.”  

The war in Ukraine had the most negative impact perhaps on Russia’s presence in Syria. Moscow has its complete focus on the ground. It supports Türkiye in relation to a likely operation but demands moderation. Considering the current circumstances, we can evaluate this demand as an “I will look the other way if an operation happens” message. 

 Iran, whose forces are on the ground, is in trouble with street events. Despite this, Tehran is closely interested in tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and everything happening in Syria. The Damascus regime is leaning towards mending relations with Türkiye. However, it seems difficult for it to take a step in that regard for now because the tutelary states will not allow it. 

 This is a summary of the picture concerning the actors in Syria. Now, let’s get to the PKK aspect of the matter.  

As mentioned earlier, the latest PKK attacks were aimed at provocation. In addition to giving the “I am still standing” message to its voter base, the PKK seeks to achieve a few other objectives through these provocative acts.  

Drawing attention to Syria in order to alleviate the pressure on the terrorist organization in Northern Iraq is one of these objectives. 

 The organization or those controlling the organization want Türkiye to come up against the actors on the ground. Yet, Türkiye is an experienced and serious state that has a tradition. It will not take such a step unless the diplomatic stage is completed. 

 The organization knows that Türkiye will make a new move to completely eliminate the terror corridor. The attacks are thus aimed at pushing Ankara to act “out of plan” and early. Yet Ankara will determine the time and place of the operation itself. It will not act based on the terrorist organization’s moves.  

According to another analysis, it is alleged that the organization, which previously relied on the chemical weapon campaign, will resort to the “Türkiye is targeting civilians” propaganda during the operation. They believe the organization will stir the local public through fictionalized videos and misinformation operations, get support from the Arabs, and protect the terror corridor through a public revolt in Syria.  

This is the new plan by the leadership that seriously believed they can take land from Türkiye during the trench operations. 

 Let them live in an imaginary world. 

 It is too late now. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and Ayn al-Arab are the primary targets. The shellings being carried out by Türkiye’s air and ground forces are concentrated on Tal Rifaat, Manbij, Ayn al-Arab, and west of Qamishli.  

 Ankara is finalizing preparations for an operation in which maximum care will be taken to ensure civilian life safety, and sensitive technological products (some new) will be used within this scope. This will be a multi-layered and extremely broad operation, the time and place of which will be determined by Ankara.