Türkiye's diplomatic efforts ended Russia-Ukraine grain corridor crisis

The source I spoke with Monday had said in reference to the grain crisis, “It is an extremely challenging process. It may have to wait until the Nov. 15 G20 Summit for a solution.” However, everything changed in 24 hours. I will tell you how the wind changed direction overnight, but first I need to give some information. 

 The grain exports deal signed on July 22 by Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye, and the UN under the auspices of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was important in two respects. 

 One. When the two countries known as the world’s granary started a war, grain prices peaked. Wheat prices increased 62 percent in the first week. As recession concerns continued, the deal signed curbed a likely food crisis. 

 Two. The objective was humanitarian. However, this deal could have additionally served as a rough draft for the diplomatic roadmap that would end the Ukraine-Russia war. Ankara saw the grain crisis solution as an opportunity for a much bigger peace plan. 

 Once the deal was signed, there were two reactions. There were those who were pleased with the deal, and those who appeared to be happy, but were in fact disturbed. It is claimed that some Western actors reproached Ankara saying, “You are creating living space for Russia.” 

 The deal would be valid for 120 days (until Nov. 18) and could be extended later. Russian leader Vladimir Putin started to express his objections in the second month of the deal (Sept. 27). He alleged that the grain exported from Ukraine is not sent to the poorest countries and that this is “cheating”. 

 The up-to-date figures I reached prove Putin right. Accordingly, the 9.7 million tons of grain exported from Ukraine was sent to 35 countries. As much as 47 percent of the grain made its way to European countries. Spain was one of the countries that received the most grains. African countries’ (Algeria, Djibouti, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Kenya) share of the grains was 14 percent. However, the poorest of them, Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Sudan received no more than 3 percent. 

 As Russia continues its objections to the grain exports, it suspended the deal after the Oct. 29 attack on the Sevastopol naval base. This triggered intense diplomacy traffic. The Russians prepared a four-item demand list in order for them to return to the table. They requested a written guarantee from Kyiv, stating that Ukraine’s grain corridor would not be used for military purposes.  They wanted Russian grain and fertilizer to reach international markets as stipulated in the deal. In order for this to happen, they were waiting for the insurance problem regarding Russian ships and goods to be solved so that Russian ships would be accepted to ports. There were restrictions regarding money transfer – SWIFT. They were unable to make agreements or receive payment for the previously exported goods. They objected to empty cargo ships passing through the corridor, noting their security concerns. 

 When National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu were discussing the grain crisis with their Russian counterparts, the Ukraine side was contacted as well.  One source, with whom I spoke Monday to find out how the meetings went had said, “It is an extremely challenging process. We may have to wait until the G20 Summit [which is planned to be held in Indonesia on Nov. 15-16] for a definite solution to the problem. As a matter of fact, Putin was invited to the G20, but it wasn’t certain whether he would attend. Meanwhile, Ukraine was not moving an inch towards giving the written guarantee Russia demanded. Moscow was saying that this is the primary condition. 

In order to solve the problem Ankara had to first convince Kyiv to provide the written guarantee and get Moscow to return to the table – even if all its demands could not be met. This was a search for a middle ground to keep this corridor open and give peace a chance, and it worked. When Ukraine accepted to give the written guarantee upon Ankara’s insistence, President Erdogan called Putin and re-invited Russia to the table. Putin responded to the invite. 

Getting Russian grain and fertilizer to world markets was a requirement of the July 22 deal. However, the fact that European countries are not accepting Russian ships to the ports, and the insurance problem is tying Russia’s hands. It is understood through President Erdogan’s statements that Russian grain and fertilizer will go not to countries whose ports are closed, but directly to Africa through Turkish straits. 

There is a great war in Ukraine and global tensions clustered around it. The grain corridor was the sole instrument that kept the warring sides in communication. Keeping the corridor open was crucial both to maintain the hope for peace and to prevent the food crisis. The world owes a great deal to Turkish diplomacy.