As Russia-Ukraine continues, eyes turn to explosions in Moldova's Transnistria region

Russian officials have said that control over the south of Ukraine would provide Moscow with access to Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region, raising the possibility of the war spreading to a third country.

Transnistria, one of the "frozen crises" in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is on the agenda again while the Russia-Ukraine war continues.

The statements of the Russian authorities and the consecutive explosions in the Transnistria region led to speculations that Russia's next stop after Ukraine would be Moldova.

Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, said on April 22 that the Russian military had entered the second phase of the war in Ukraine and would provide an exit route to the Transnistria region in Moldova.

Following this speech, the State Security Ministry building in Tiraspol, the so-called capital of Transnistria, was attacked with a rocket launcher. Later, there were explosions on the antenna towers that provided the radio broadcasts.

There were allegations that Russia plans to reach the Transnistria region as the Russian army attacked the cities of Ukraine on the Black Sea coast and after Maruipol, it opened fire on the city of Odessa on the border with Moldova.

- Crisis began 30 years ago

The crisis, which started with the collapse of the Soviet Union and turned into a conflict in the early 1990s, has been going on for more than 30 years.

After Moldova declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Transnistria, located on the left bank of the Dniester River, declared its independence unilaterally with the support of Russia.

The war, which began between the Moldovan government, which did not accept this, and the Russian-backed separatists, ended with a cease-fire signed between Russia and Moldova in July 1992.

Although the war stopped, the issue could not be resolved. Moldova considers this region its territory, but Transnistria wants to be recognized as a separate state.

Transnistria, which is not recognized as a state by any member of the UN, was recognized only by the Russian-backed so-called republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which unilaterally declared its independence from Georgia with the support of Russia.

Transnistria has a so-called constitution, flag and currency, as well as a separate so-called administration, parliament, army, police and postal system from Chisinau.

Stretching along the Ukrainian border, Transnistria has no borders with Russia and the Black Sea. Russian passports were distributed to the people in the region, which has a population of about 500,000. Russia sees passport holders as a potential force in its favor.

- Russia holds military forces, ammunition in Transnistria

It is said that the cost of the existence of Russia, which has its military units in Transnistria, is millions of dollars annually.

One of Russia's largest arsenals from World War II during the Soviet Union is located in the village of Cobasna in Transnistria. It is said that the ammunition is reportedly at risk of exploding. It is claimed that these weapons are allegedly used in crises in the region.

Although Moldovan authorities, who want this issue to be resolved peacefully, occasionally say that the region should be cleared of Russian weapons and Russian forces should be removed from the region. Russia, which is trying to protect this arsenal, has been continuing its influence on Moldova for decades.

- Discussions on Transnistria issue within OSCE

In order to resolve the issue, negotiations on Transnistria have been underway within the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 1993.

Representatives of Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine, the US, the OSCE and the EU participate in the negotiations, which are held in the 5 2 format within the organization. The process continues with no solution being produced yet.

- Russian efforts to federalize Moldova

Arguing that the Transnistria issue would be resolved through the federalization of Moldova, Russia presented a project known as the "Kozak Plan" to Chisinau in 2003. This plan includes the establishment of a "federal" Moldova and the granting of special status to the Transnistria region.

Under the plan, the Transnistria administration would have the power to block any legislation that the Chisinau administration would pass. According to the Russian plan, Moldova would not be able to join any group and would maintain neutrality, but Russian military units would be able to stay in Transnistria for years.

Relations between Russia and Moldova deteriorated further when the proposal was not accepted by the Chisinau administration of the time.