Calling Russia-Ukraine tensions ‘a frozen conflict’ is misleading: Turkey

Referring to ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine as “a frozen conflict” is misleading, Turkiye’s foreign minister said Wednesday

“The recent situation in and around Ukraine has shown us (that) the term ‘frozen conflict’ is misleading. A conflict is a conflict. These are conflicts to which the solutions are frozen,” Mevlut Cavusoglu told the 11th Ministerial Meeting of the UN Group of Friends of Mediation.

“Without a negotiated resolution, it can get violent at any moment. We need an increased focus on mediation,” Cavusoglu underscored at the virtual meeting.

According to Wikipedia, in international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability. The term has been commonly used for post-Soviet conflicts.

The US and its European allies have warned that Russia is setting the stage for an invasion of Ukraine by positioning over 100,000 troops on its border with the former Soviet republic, as well as significant artillery and tank deployments.

Moscow has denied the claims, saying its troops are there for regular exercises.

On mediation, Cavusoglu said the group was instrumental in developing the first comprehensive UN guidance for effective mediation in 2012. In a decade, it has grown into “a big family of 61 members,” with Malta being the most recent addition, he said.

“Our success at the UN inspired the establishment of similar groups at the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) and the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation). Turkiye co-chairs these groups as well.”

Turkiye launched the Mediation for Peace initiative together with Finland at the UN in 2010 to raise awareness of the importance of mediation in terms of preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution in the international community, as well as to contribute more resources to mediation efforts.

Cavusoglu said that 2 billion people live in conflict-affected countries and that 40% of the conflicts in the last 60 years have been over natural resources.

Advances in digital transformation provide opportunities for more impactful mediation, he said, adding the UN Security Council benefits from virtual reality.

Both challenges and opportunities have changed, said the Turkish foreign minister, stressing the need for effective mediation.

“We keep highlighting the importance of the inclusion of women and youth in mediation processes,” he said, adding there will be a special section at the 8th Istanbul Mediation Conference, which will be held on March 10.

The conference, which has been organized by the Turkish Foreign Ministry since 2012, gathers politicians, diplomats, academics, experts, students and anyone else interested in peace mediation.

The event, which hosts discussions in the field of mediation, contributes to the field's conceptual framework.

- Mediators must find new ways to address conflicts

Finland’s Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto highlighted the importance of multilateral cooperation, diplomacy and conflict prevention efforts.

Comprehensive, integrated, inclusive and multitrack approaches are requited when considering solutions, he said, adding mediation may be used in conflict prevention and resolution.

He went on to say that trust is an essential element of peace.

“It requires human interaction, dialogue and mutual exchanges,” he added.

For her part, Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN's top official for political and peacebuilding affairs, said there have been significant advances in the field of mediation over the years.

“We also have seen the complexity of the international, regional and local environments within which we engage also grow,” she said.

Noting that the number of conflicts around the world has increased, she said the number of peace processes or agreements has not kept pace.

“Meanwhile, human suffering has endured and expanded,” she added.

She urged the group to be ready to quickly and flexibly lend support to promising initiatives by individual member states and by regional organizations, ad-hoc coalitions of states and local mediation actors.

“This group of friends will be a vital platform as we identify and tailor support to these formats for mediation and in the efforts to ensure unity of action across them,” she added.

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said peace mediators must find new ways to address today's conflicts.

“Everything has been weaponized,” he said, explaining that the economy, technology, energy, information, health, culture and identity could be used as a weapon.

It is difficult to know when to mediate and with whom, he said, adding the frames of mediation need to look at new ways, as the line between war and peace is “blurred.”