Türkiye insulated from grain crisis by strong stocks: Industry official

International Association of Operative Millers Eurasia President Eren Gunhan Ulusoy said Wednesday that Türkiye is fully insulated from short-term global grain supply disruptions caused by Black Sea tensions and European drought, citing the country's robust domestic stocks and expectations of a record-breaking wheat harvest.

Domestic harvest resilience

Ulusoy noted that grain production has proven highly productive this year, with rainfall increasing 76% compared with last year. "Türkiye's grain production was highly productive this year. With rainfall increasing 76% compared with last year, a new record in wheat production is within reach," he said, adding that the country's wheat harvest is expected to reach 24.5 million tons. "Thanks to both our successful domestic harvest and strong stock structure, Türkiye is fully insulated from this short-term global supply crisis," Ulusoy stated.

Black Sea supply risks

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a more sensitive phase as port infrastructure, logistics networks and cargo vessels belonging to both countries increasingly become targets, Ulusoy warned. During the initial stage of the conflict in 2022, Ukrainian ports were closed while Russian ports remained operational, he said, adding that infrastructure on both sides is now exposed to attacks. Disruptions to exports from Russia and Ukraine — which together account for about 30% of global wheat supplies — could directly affect international markets, according to Ulusoy, who cited US Department of Agriculture projections showing Russia's wheat export forecast at 43 million to 46 million tons and Ukraine's at around 13.5 million tons amid logistical constraints.

Export opportunities emerge

Severe drought across Europe could create new export opportunities for Türkiye's flour and processed grain industries, Ulusoy said. "As the export shares of Ukraine and Russia decline and countries such as the US, Canada and Kazakhstan step in, Türkiye is one of the most critical players capable of filling Europe's processed grain products gap," he said. Türkiye's flour industry maintains an annual production capacity of 32 million tons and accounts for 23% of global flour trade — ranking as the world's leading flour exporter for 11 consecutive years. The 5th IAOM Eurasia Conference and Exhibition will be held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 28-29, bringing together more than 1,000 industry professionals.