If Bangladesh joins: A 'trans-regional, Islamic security belt'...

It is not surprising that the scope of the Mecca Agreement has expanded even before a month has passed. Its entry into the depths of West Asia before the ink has dried confirms the geopolitical descriptions we have made...

Bangladesh's Deputy Foreign Minister Humayun Kabir told journalists on Monday that his country had been invited to the agreement; "If there is a security agreement among Islamic countries in the Middle East, it is not unusual for us to consider joining it. This matter is being viewed positively." Let us also add that Kabir described the agreement as an 'Islamic world self-defense mechanism'...

Bangladesh has not yet joined the agreement. It is only announcing that it has been invited, but the official language it uses shows that it is inclined toward it. The Foreign Minister, however, stated that no formal invitation had yet been received, but that they would view it positively if it came. Even if they never join, the mere fact that they say they view it positively could make many countries think...

When you look at Bangladesh's place on the world map, you could even say that the center of the Mecca Agreement is shifting/being adjusted. Some will say it is 'changing its nature,' but 'it was always like that from the beginning'!..

Türkiye-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan meant 'Middle East-centered,' but it is impossible to limit the nature of this core cadre to the region. This is why analyses in Turkish media have always fallen short of the pact's true scope...

Bangladesh carries the structure into South Asia, the Indian Ocean, and the Bay of Bengal. Over time, countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, which may join the alliance, could expand the picture considerably.

Before we hang the global framework on the wall, let's go through it step by step...

India will also experience stress over Bangladesh's participation...

If a list of countries most unsettled by the Mecca Pact were made, India would easily top it—and Bangladesh's participation will add to that stress.

Pakistan-Bangladesh puts India in parentheses. 'Encircling' would be too ambitious, but 'strategic framing' cannot be disputed. Dhaka-New Delhi relations are already poor. Even without actually using the pact against India, just voicing the "invitation" could serve as leverage on their existing crisis points...

Pakistan gains once again, very clearly. Islamabad is significantly stepping forward on the global stage and demoralizing India. This time too; as is known, Bangladesh is a country that broke away from Pakistan in 1971. Their coming together in the Mecca Pact half a century later would certainly carry a serious and weighty message. Nor does it stop there; Pakistan's security/defense network would, for the first time, extend to India's east...

Since Bangladesh has not officially joined the alliance, it would be premature to analyze military matters. While it is still being debated what mechanism would be activated if one of the founding members were attacked, discussing how the defense mechanism would operate if Bangladesh were attacked would be speculative, but... it does come to the tip of the tongue: "Would Bangladesh also come under Pakistan's 'nuclear umbrella'..."

Türkiye... Of course, it gains, but we also need to look specifically at Ankara-Dhaka relations; Bangladesh's Army Chief of Staff was in Ankara last July. He met with the Defense Minister and the Chief of General Staff, visited defense industry facilities, and cooperation in joint production and UAV fields was discussed. So there is a fresh infrastructure for bilateral relations. Bangladesh is not just a fourth partner for Türkiye. A strategic door could be opened for the Turkish defense industry through the "Bay of Bengal." This may still seem strange to some in Türkiye, but it shouldn't. Didn't we come this far from "what are we doing in Syria, Libya" talk? Let's get used to it now...

In short, it could be one of the exit points to South and Southeast Asia economically. The region is vast and rich in terms of economy, sea, and energy routes. It suits us well...

China... The Mecca Agreement is by no means a surprise; it has already reached that far.

Readings that the Mecca Agreement, specifically regarding Bangladesh, would be a step against China are incorrect. Bangladesh-China relations are different; there are significant diplomatic and defense cooperations between them. Bangladesh is preparing to acquire fighter jets from Beijing. We have already shared China's view of the Mecca Pact previously. Therefore, expecting a harsh reaction from China would be unfounded, given its influence in the region as well. Moreover, given China-Pakistan and China-India relations...

Perhaps, if the other Muslim countries mentioned above also join, could China develop a kind of 'green belt' concern? For now, that would be a stretch, but let's note it...

England! Would there be a wedding without the drummer? It has a very important role in Bangladesh's history. Its influence is not what it used to be, but let me say this much, it is enough: Bangladesh is a Commonwealth member. We can trace English influence in all recent developments in the Middle East, and it connects here too...

If Bangladesh's prospective membership becomes a reality, it will also carry demographic and geographical significance. We are talking about a country of 170 million people. The alliance would also gain a true "bloc" image in terms of 'representativeness.' Since the 'maritime' dimension of the pact has expanded, the definition "Trans-regional security belt" could be used...

The Mecca Pact needs to have a 'logical geopolitical trajectory.' A strategic flow, in other words. If this vector expands with Malaysia, Indonesia, and Egypt, no one can object to the 'definition' anymore; it would become a "security pole." We frequently use the caveat 'for now' because there are many variables. We are not talking about small matters. When and how it will achieve its ideal form is full of unknowns. But even its rough outline offers an alternative to the existing order...