Netanyahu bloc trails opposition by five seats in poll

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc is projected to secure 52 seats in the 120-member Knesset, trailing the opposition by five seats, Channel 12 said Wednesday. The poll, conducted by the Lazar Research Institute among 506 Israelis, marks the first survey since parties formally filed their candidate lists for the Oct. 27 parliamentary election. The opposition parties excluding Arab factions would take 57 seats, while Arab parties are projected to win 11, leaving neither main bloc with the 61 seats required to form a government.

Party standings

Former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party led the projections with 25 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud with 21. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Together party was projected to win 13 seats, followed by the Democrats with 10 and Yisrael Beiteinu with nine. The United Torah Judaism party was projected to take eight seats, Shas seven and Otzma Yehudit six, while the Religious Zionism and Amkha Yisrael parties would each win five.

Coalition hurdles

Arab parties were projected to secure 11 seats, with seven for the Joint List and four for the United Arab List. Most leaders of Jewish parties have ruled out relying on Arab lawmakers to form a government, complicating coalition arithmetic despite the 68 seats projected for parties outside Netanyahu's bloc. A total of 38 parties filed candidate lists for the Oct. 27 election, though polls suggest only around 13 would cross the threshold and enter parliament, according to the Israeli news website Walla, which noted that the survey did not specify a margin of error.