Trump declines to rule out recession this year amid economic uncertainty

President Donald Trump refused to dismiss the possibility of a US recession this year, acknowledging economic uncertainty as his administration navigates shifting trade policies.

"I hate to predict things like that," Trump said in an interview with Fox News, when pressed on the likelihood of a downturn. He emphasized that economic changes take time.

"There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big – we're bringing wealth back to America."

His Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive, telling NBC's Meet the Press "absolutely not" when asked whether Americans should prepare for a recession.

Financial markets have been rattled by Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, with US stocks suffering their worst week since the November election. Meanwhile, an Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4% contraction of real GDP growth in the year's first quarter, potentially the worst since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trump, however, downplayed concerns, telling reporters aboard Air Force One "who knows?" when asked to clarify his stance.

In his recent address to a joint session of Congress, he reassured Americans, saying, "We're okay with that. It won't be much."

Despite the administration's optimism, major financial institutions are sounding alarms. Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%, citing policy changes and higher tariff expectations as key risks, while Morgan Stanley lowered its 2025 US economic growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%, pointing to weak economic data and tariff concerns.

The US last experienced a brief recession in early 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout, which led to millions of job losses.