Is the U.S. withdrawing from Syria?

Following the fall of the Assad regime and the establishment of a new government in Damascus under Ahmed Shara, the internal balances and regional dynamics of the Syrian civil war have shifted. This change signals the beginning of a new era in Syria’s reconstruction while prompting regional actors involved in the conflict to reassess their positions. Rapid developments have also led Washington to reconsider its presence and strategic objectives in Syria.

The U.S. military has been working to facilitate an agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus while simultaneously preparing plans for a full withdrawal, as demanded by Trump. Reports last week that around 600 U.S. troops had pulled out and that American-controlled bases were being consolidated created the impression that the Trump administration had initiated a full exit.

Netanyahu’s Visit and the Focus on Türkiye’s Growing Influence

During Netanyahu’s visit to Washington two weeks ago, it was clear that he raised concerns about Iran, Gaza, and trade tariffs—but also highlighted Türkiye’s expanding influence in Syria. Trump’s on-camera remark that Israel needed to be "reasonable" regarding Türkiye suggested Netanyahu did not get what he wanted. When Netanyahu pushed for military action against Iran and exemptions from tariffs, Trump countered by bringing up the $4 billion in aid the U.S. provides Israel, calling it excessive—putting Netanyahu in an awkward position.

Trump’s pressure for a Gaza ceasefire and his insistence on diplomacy with Iran demonstrate that, unlike Biden, he is willing to challenge Netanyahu when necessary. It’s also clear that Netanyahu’s argument—that the Iranian threat in Syria is diminishing while the Turkish threat is growing—did not resonate with Trump. Instead, Trump’s remarks about Türkiye’s gains in Syria and the possibility of mediating between Israel and Türkiye suggest he is satisfied with the emerging geopolitical landscape.

From Trump’s perspective, the rise of a new political leadership in Damascus, Türkiye’s growing influence (given his good rapport with Erdoğan), the decline of Iranian and Russian sway, and Israel’s ability to secure its own interests all create favorable conditions for a U.S. withdrawal. Trump appears determined to follow through on the Syria pullout—a move he couldn’t fully execute in his first term—and is unlikely to reverse course simply because Israel sees Türkiye as a rival or threat.

The Fight Against Daesh

When Trump first ordered a withdrawal from Syria in December 2019, he faced sharp backlash from Congress and the U.S. media. The decision led to the resignations of then-Defense Secretary James Mattis and Brett McGurk, the U.S. envoy for the anti-Daesh coalition. While the Pentagon reduced troop levels, a complete withdrawal was stalled by arguments that Daesh would resurge, Russia and Iran would fill the vacuum, and Israel’s security would be at risk. CENTCOM, Congress, and the media pushed back, claiming the fight against Daesh wasn’t over, the Kurds couldn’t be abandoned, and Iran’s influence would grow—forcing Trump to scale back his plans.

Trump’s withdrawal announcement, made via Twitter after a call with President Erdoğan, drew criticism that Türkiye was dictating U.S. policy. Though Türkiye assured continued anti-Daesh operations and the security of prisons holding Daesh militants, CENTCOM and pressure from Congress and the media—who argued that U.S. allies (the YPG) shouldn’t be abandoned—persuaded Trump to maintain a reduced presence. Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also framed the issue as not just about Daesh but about countering Iran and Russia.

Will the Withdrawal Happen This Time?

Those close to Trump say he is now determined to leave Syria. While CENTCOM and Israel may still try to dissuade him, their influence seems weaker this time. CENTCOM will likely argue that the SDF’s integration into Syria’s new national army is incomplete, Daesh activity is increasing, and prison security remains a concern—but Trump may instead rely on President Erdoğan’s assurances. Israel will push back against leaving Syria to Türkiye, but Trump’s earlier comments to Netanyahu suggest he is unmoved.

Despite CENTCOM and Israel’s preference for a continued U.S. presence, the changing realities on the ground weaken their case, increasing the likelihood of withdrawal. Moreover, Congress and the media lack the energy or leverage to mount strong opposition. All signs point to Trump finally achieving a full exit from Syria.

That said, Trump is known for abrupt policy shifts, and while his positive stance toward Türkiye is an advantage, his decisions remain unpredictable. From Türkiye’s perspective, Ankara’s clear and consistent Syria policy—pursuing well-defined goals regardless of U.S. actions—remains its greatest strength.