Netanyahu warns Likud will lose election 'unless something changes'

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told closed-door talks this week that his Likud party would lose the upcoming legislative elections "unless something changes," acknowledging a loss of 10 parliamentary seats and expressing uncertainty about reversing the decline before the October 27 vote. According to Israel's public broadcaster KAN, the premier said in private discussions that "I do not know how to get them back," revealing deepening concern within the ruling party despite public claims of confidence.

The remarks showed Netanyahu's skepticism toward opinion polls indicating favorable results for his camp, with the prime minister reportedly believing that Likud's actual position is worse than reflected in surveys conducted by right-leaning groups. Sources familiar with the discussions said Netanyahu views the electoral landscape as increasingly precarious for the long-serving leader, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades.

Opposition gains ground

Recent polling data underscores the challenges facing Netanyahu's coalition, with a survey conducted by Israel's Channel 13 showing Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party winning 24 seats compared to Likud's 19 — a decline of four seats for the ruling party from the previous week. The same poll indicated that the bloc of Jewish opposition parties led by Eisenkot would secure 57 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Netanyahu's coalition would capture 48 and Arab parties would win 15.

A government in Israel requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers, leaving both major blocs short of an outright majority and potentially forcing complex negotiations to form a ruling coalition. On the question of preferred prime minister, Eisenkot leads with 46% support against Netanyahu's 35%, while 19% of respondents said they remained undecided, according to the Channel 13 survey.

Legal and political pressure

The general elections scheduled for October 27 are widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership amid ongoing corruption trials and accusations of authoritarian governance. The 76-year-old premier has headed what analysts describe as the most right-wing government in Israel's history since late December 2022, overseeing the military campaign in the Gaza Strip that began in October 2023.

Netanyahu currently faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges related to the conflict in Gaza, adding further pressure to his re-election bid. The combination of legal troubles, military setbacks, and eroding domestic support has created the most challenging electoral environment for the veteran politician in recent years.