German far-right AfD hits 30% in poll, leads Merz bloc by 10 points

Alternative for Germany has reached 30% support in a nationwide poll for the first time, opening a 10-point lead over Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative bloc and deepening the political crisis facing the ruling coalition, according to a GMS survey published Monday.

Conservative support hits new low

Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, fell to 20% in the survey — the lowest level recorded by the pollster for the conservative alliance. Combined with the Social Democrats at 11%, the chancellor's coalition would lack a parliamentary majority if elections were held this week.

Dramatic reversal since February vote

The figures mark a sharp reversal from the Feb. 23 federal election, when the CDU/CSU secured 28.5% compared to the AfD's 20.8%. The right-wing party has gained 2 percentage points since GMS conducted its last survey in late July, while the conservatives lost 3 points during the same period.

Smaller parties below threshold

The Greens rose 1 percentage point to 14%, while the Left Party also gained 1 point to reach 11%. The liberal Free Democrats slipped to 4% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance stood at 3%, leaving both formations below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

State elections test Merkel successor

The survey comes days before regional elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin on Sunday, which are widely viewed as a referendum on Merz's leadership following the conservatives' heavy defeat to the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, where the right-wing party captured 43.8% on Sept. 6. North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wuest has emerged in media reports as a potential successor should party pressure force Merz from office, though a leadership change would not automatically dissolve the Bundestag or trigger a snap national vote.